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Looking At The Numbers; DelMauro On Draft Watch List

I make my living as a Financial Analyst so I’m constantly thinking about numbers.  Yet when it comes time for me to get away from work and relax and watch sports I for some reason continue to think about numbers.  So I enjoy sports statistics.  Well I put together a statistical log in excel that I’ll update as the season goes along and hope it helps give some insight into what’s going well and what’s going badly for the Minutemen.  So a few vlookups and sumifs later and here’s a few observations.  I’ll do my best not to make it too boring.

First, it’s interesting to note that despite the offensive output this season and the winning record, opponents are out shooting the Minutemen by close to 4 shots a game on average.  Even in games they win the team is outshot by nearly 2 shots while this increases to about 7 shots in losses.  In the last three games this margin has increased to 11.

What really stands out however is the special teams.  When the team wins they are 32.6% on the power play and 82.9% on the penalty kill.  In losses both numbers drop to 17.6% and 80% respectively.  The penalty kill has been especially damaging in the last three games falling to 72.7%.  The penalty kill decreases in losses even while the opposing team is getting fewer power play opportunities in those games compared to when UMass win, 3 chances on average to 4 when they win.  Not only are the Minutemen converting opportunities at a lower rate when they lose but they’re also getting a third less opportunities in general, 5 to 3.5.

It’s really important for the team to shoot early and shot often.  In the last three games they’ve actually had success when shooting with almost 10% of their shots finding the back of the net.  While this doesn’t reach the 14% rate they’re hitting when they win it is better than the 7.5% overall when they lose.  So things are not completely as bad as they have seemed lately.  I think in the long run the team will also want to come out stronger in the first.  Only 16% of their regulation goals have been scored in the 1st period.  This has to improve, they can’t always be coming back from behind.  Hopefully these numbers improve tomorrow against Merrimack.

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I was able to do a little more research on our newest recruits.  I didn’t find too much on Conor Allen, except to see that he did very well in the NAHL last season including being named Player of the Week a few times.  Chris DelMauro though is getting some looks from NHL scouts as he was listed on this watch list for next year’s draft.  DelMauro’s committment is currently the front page story on the AJHL website.

Also I mentioned earlier this week that it appeared that Joel Hanley must be out with some kind of injury.  Lowell recruiting guru, Monty, confirmed that he saw that Hanley was on the shelf with what he thought was a shoulder injury.  Unfortunately it’s worse, broken leg.  Ugh.

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James Marcou stays on top in this week’s Hobey Watch from Inside Hockey but Casey Wellman now finds himself on the bubble along with freshman sensation Stephane DeCosta who I’m looking forward to seeing first hand tomorrow.

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Scott Crowder is already putting his Isenberg SOM degree to work as founder and director of the New England Pond Hockey Classic to be played on a frozen Lake Winnipesaukee in February.  Here’s the release from UMass Athletics as well as the website for the tournament.

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1 Comment

  1. justin

     /  December 11, 2009

    I believe our little friend over at The Ice is Life blog has done some reserach on shooting % and determined that the league average is a hair under 11% (maybe 10.5?). So they’ve been a bit below average recently, which could partially account for losing 3 straight.

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